My BA status is currently blue because I've been using Avios almost exclusively for the past 2 years as my balance was uncomfortably high during Covid. As a result I've just ignored TPs which has turned out to be a good decision.
I'm still managing to earn decent amounts of Avios and I don't think the new TP system is going to affect that too much. I will continue to redeem on BA where it makes sense to do so.
That's an interesting idea - hotel chains have been doing it, I'm not sure if it will work with airlines. (Also the idea bears a bit of resemblance to Nectar where you get very little points from normal spending at Sainsbury's, the vast bulk of your points come from personalised offers.)
For example with IHG, to get the top tier of diamond you normally need either 70 nights or to spend USD 12000 excl taxes and "charges" in a calendar year. But they have run promos where you can get diamond with 15 nights, or even just 1 stay, and most recently they offered some members a personalised price to keep diamond with the max price being USD 1200 - plenty of people took them up on it if their personalised price was USD 600 or so.
Based on what we presently know, an offer of quadruple TPs for a single flight is unlikely to cut it for me. There would need to be offers like get 10000 TPs if you book and fly two long-haul returns in the next 3 months.
It may well be something along the lines of 10,000 TPs if you book 2 long haul flights in the next 3 months. The new model really does open up opportunities for them. Heck, nothing stops them from selling TPs or doing TP boosts (1x, 2x, 3x) like they do with Avios right now. I however feel that the base values they set are a bit too high, such that it completely disincentivises you from even trying to begin with.