Originally Posted by
yoloswag420
- Unless you have access to the entire schedule's fare data, I don't think you can specifically know if the front of the cabin is consistently filled or not. Browsing a few seat maps anecdotally or using your own flight is not representative at all. In isolation, I could point to the fact that the Delta One cabin is completely sold out for tomorrow's flight, but that doesn't actually mean anything in the broader picture.
- I'd also add you're looking at Basic Economy fares for Delta, their proper Main Cabin pricing is inline with the competition, which doesn't quite have the same concept. US carriers sometimes even earn back the difference or more from ancillary services by upselling addons from Basic Economy, which is a very successful concept.
- Delta is opening up an A350 pilot base out of SEA for their Asia flights. I don't think the inference is citing the addition of premium seats as this route is successful, but rather that's a tool Delta is employing to improve their returns on this route. If they do somehow fill up their premium seats, then they will be able to tradeoff the lower LFs in economy and bring in more revenue.
- Finally, I have to keep emphasizing this, airlines sell networks, not individual routes. If SEA-TPE is boosting the rest of their domestic network, that's a net win, and not something you can easily discern. For example, Delta is selling seats that connect onto this flight from the East Coast for 6k+ RT in business class, which clearly provides a lot of value. Delta's schedule makes it more focused on US domestic connections from both sides vs Taiwanese carriers are focused on serving local population + onwards Asia connections, different markets, so it's hard to point to conclusively say what the results are by cherry-picking one-way marketed fares.
1. I don't need to have the entire scheduled fare data, you can search it once per week and look at it. I actually wrote a post on the Taiwan BBS when I reviewed the route in September (along with some other domestic connections with UA and the Taiwanese airlines as competitors). @moondog also wrote couple posts back in July and August. In addition, reddit has some amazing pictures with Sep/Oct/Nov filled with 30,000 miles on SEA-TPE and 110,000 miles on Delta One. These dirt cheap fare exist.
1a. There's no point telling me it's Basic Economy for Delta because the cheapest fare on BR/CI/JX are also pretty similar to the restriction DL offers. Do you know that DL's Basic Economy fare is actually refundable on this route? Do you know BR/CI/JX actually nickel and dimes the customers with fees? My guess would be you don't know cause you wouldn't be using this as a refute if you actually knew it. It's perfectly fine to compare Delta's Basic Economy fare to the Taiwanese competitors. They are similar.
**For travel from Asia and the Pacific, the change or cancel fee is $199 for tickets issued on or after September 26, 2024 (no change or cancel fees apply for tickets issued prior to that date).
1b. I am not surprised it's filled tomorrow... it's peak season since second week of December and it will end second week of January. CNY 2025 will start end of January so another 2 to 3 weeks of peak season will arrive then. I have never said Delta's loading is bad during peak season. This is why I said if we look at the entire year Delta is probably breaking even or making a little bit of profit.
2. If Delta cannot fill a small premium cabin during off peak with those prices and award rates, they are not filling a larger premium cabin. It makes sense to operate 359 on SEA-TPE cause the aircraft rotation warrants it with other Asia flights, but DL could also move this flight elsewhere that may be more profitable in the future.
3. Again, I said before and I will say again. I have looked at more than just SEA-TPE and the fare is vastly different depending on who is the competitor. While I don't look at every airport cause there are so many domestic airports within the US, I would be happy to say the amount of capture Delta can get for TPE bound passenger is very little (especially at the East Coast). LAXdude1023 at the airliners had a very good post telling us where all the USA passengers are coming from with TPE as the terminal and there just isn't enough passengers outside LAX, SFO and JFK. There is a reason why the Taiwanese airlines are doing businesses with VIPs. They need the South East Asia passengers to fill the cabin.
3a. If Delta is selling 6K+ and people buy them, good for them. I just reviewed BR's JFK-TPE Royal Laurel price and it's under 6K. I would be surprised if people who can use JFK not to use them and decide to jump on Delta with at least one-stop via SEA to TPE and the miserable domestic service. If the 50-60% during off peak equates to Delta One filled up with revenue pax, then your statement stands. However, if you actually studied probability and statistics, chance of that happening is next to nil. Delta knows that and their fare system knows that as well with the stats they have on hand, that is why we have some cheap fares and award seats available on this route.
3b. Many people have taken the route and told us the front cabin is almost never filled during off peak periods. If the East Coast passengers are so good at giving Delta revenue, Delta wouldn't need to discount SEA-TPE to 110K. They can just be SEA-ICN and SEA-HND charged at a premium without the need of releasing dirt cheap awards.