Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin

From the moment the merger closed, I have thought AS would "de-hub" HNL, with regard to the routes to Asia and Australia.
When the DOT approved the merger, they said nothing about preserving international traffic to/from Hawaii. Their only warnings were intra-state, and from west coast to Hawaii, and AS can easily fulfill those requirements with the 321's and some AS 737 Max painted in HA livery.
HA with AS now has partnerships with QF and JL. Japan to Hawaii traffic is down and they have competition there from JL, ANA and DL from HND/NRT.
To Australia they have competition from JetStar as well.
Probably no loss to drop AKL if not wildly profitable and use those frames in SEA.
The rest of HA's existing Pacific island destinations are reachable with 321 or MAX.
HA already dropped AUS and will likely drop JFK and BOS which are widebody requiring routes.

By 2030, HNL will probably just have widebody flights to HND and maybe SYD if AS wants to keep a vanity flagship flight that runs LHR-SEA-HNL-SYD. The SEA-SYD great circle maps directly over HNL so it would still be a faster route than via SFO or LAX from SEA.

A surprising number of those widebody frames will be available for AS to do what they wish from SEA and they can have an Asia and EU network that rivals Northwest circa 2007 (minus the NRT hub).