data point from today at LAS - Centurion was waitlist only. Went to the United Club in the interim (The Club was also on waitlist only). Got bored of the UC, so went over to the Centurion to check how things were going. It was 46 minutes after I joined the waitlist, and I was number 43 on the list. Estimate was another 90 minutes. I guess I should have arrived 5 hours before in order to maybe get in 3 hours before.