Originally Posted by
Boraxo
If it is game of chance then it must be powerball as you chance of snagging an upgrade on transcon is extremely rare IME. As 1K I was always in the 10-30 spot on the list - never cleared SFO<->IAD or SFO<->IAH. Instruments (eg PP) might bump me up the list but still never cleared.
can’t speak to post-pandemic but I doubt much has changed. If anything has likely become worse as more leisure travelers are buying up to F.
I would never roll the dice on TATL or TPAC and even transcon I often buy up now. It does give me some satisfaction to know I am taking someone’s upgrade
Someone might have other data, but I think SFO is a bit of toxic combination of financial and tech firms who pay up front, concentrated high disposable income population. That gets combined with UA dominance and relatively long stage lengths (6hrs block time on many E-W sectors). And voila, those seats get sold. The lack of upgrades is not an SFO or UA phenomenon, but it's particularly acute given some of those factors.