FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Distinctly Delta - Investor Day Anouncement?
Old Nov 25, 2024 | 7:04 am
  #78  
lindros2
1M
40 Countries Visited
100 Nights
15 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Pensacola, FL (PNS)
Programs: Delta 1.99M, Hyatt Globalist, IHG Diamond, Marriott Gold, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,687
Originally Posted by findark
I did not read the whole thing in depth, but I'm not quite sure how the information reflects on the profitability of the Amex relationship. I read the first link, and it shows $3.46b of direct passenger revenue (tickets), $1.1b of "mostly lounge access" (honestly startling if true), $1.7b of probably mostly baggage fees, and a more opaque $3b in "loyalty program revenue".

But at the end of the day, there are allocable costs to Delta to providing all or most of these services, like actually operating the flights that Amex purchases travel on, operating the lounges that Amex buys into, and so-on. And honestly, characterizing revenue which is backed by the costs of operating flights as "ancillary" seems flat-out wrong to me.

My point is that I'm sure Delta is doing well by this relationship, and it's obviously big, but there's no easy way to judge exactly how profitable it is, or that the profit of selling more premium cabin seats directly to passengers instead of using them to incentivize Amex card spend is or isn't a net win for Delta. To use myself as an example, I'm a huge spender into the Delta Amex ecosystem... but that's because it pays back huge benefits compared to UA, where I never got into the Chase/UA cards. Am I actually profitable to the Amex relationship? I highly doubt it.
They have the data. It's not in the generic, free, publicly-accessible reports.

Now are YOU profitable to the AMEX relationship (you = collective 'you' including me and others)?
That's a segue/leap into a completely different topic - credit card profitability (I was stationed at Capital One for 5 years, so I understand a little of that, too.. including the Sony Card transaction -> https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...102948664.html).
For that, I'd look at the Costco branded card relationship (it wasn't points/ancillaries/$25-per-Sky Club-visit).. but they disclosed a lot of the mystery behind the curtain (2016):

- Costco cards account(ted) for one out of every 10 AmEx cards in circulation
- Also 20 percent of the company’s loan portfolio (****)
- Co-branded Costco cards make up 8 percent of AmEx’s customer spending

So "you" make money for credit card issuers/providers based on spend, and Delta gets paid ($7bn on its way to $10bn) for mileage points.

THEN, (as previously discussed with emma dog a couple years ago, my estimate was that Delta holds about $8-10bn in SkyMiles liabilities (which was reduced during Covid). This is one report (an HBR report led me to a dead end):

https://magic.link/posts/navigating-...ies-blockchain


Last edited by lindros2; Nov 25, 2024 at 7:12 am
lindros2 is offline