I’ve had both things happen. When I had a CC expire (and forgot to update profile), I was asked for the new card. Fortunately I had it with me. Agent updated profile and res.

On my last 7 rentals, I was asked a couple of times. I am well known at my most frequent rental location. If there was a trainee or fairly newish person, I was asked (going by the rules?). If there was a long queue, I was generally not asked.

Conclusion — no definitive answer.