The difference between potentially profitable and actually profitable is very narrow and can change in a heartbeat. Their decision is based on assumption, which may or may not be correct and/or accurate, and we all (should) know what happens when one assume(s) .

I don’t want their card that badly, I wouldn’t get a CD in the 3 digit range .

As with investing, past performance (in this case, credit card management) is not indicative of future results. MOs can also change in a heartbeat.

If nothing else Citi could consider the card a loss leader (for me). By declining me, particularly after all the time and energy to contact their (nonexistent) reconsideration team, they’ve left a bad taste that will linger for a long time. Had they approved the card, their bottom line may possibly have taken a hit (a small short-term hit) but they also may have gotten more of my business, which would have been more profitable and more ongoing.