AC and luggage tracking has always been a massive pit of mystery, but they've never lost one of my bags (and I refuse to fly HBO/Carry-on) just usually followed a day or 2 later. Their system now allows for "real-time" luggage tracking via the app so if they have access to the AC PNR they can check in the app if the bags are there.

That being said, in all my cases or IRROPS SNAUFUs when I was told that the luggage was automatically being transferred...the odds of it actually happening were somewhere in the neighbourhood of the same odds as Andrea de Cesaris actually finishing a Grand Prix.