There are also pretty significant swings in the award prices these days. I signed up for the 5x50k CC bonus and utilized all the certs in Switzerland this summer, getting around $2500 value. But it wasn't a sure thing and I had to wait for points prices to drop before I could use them. I also re-checked every booking every few days for price drops, and was able to claw back about 20K points. A snapshot on any one day would have yielded far less value.

I think what they are doing these days is curve balancing their room availability. When they have more availability than is ideal a certain number of days before, they drop the award prices. If they are above the curve because of an event or just a busy period, award prices stay high.