I'm analyzing this Excel of data just now. Does anyone know why CI is so weak out of JFK? Meanwhile, BR is seemingly much stronger with 5% higher LF and more net volume since BR is daily/more than daily, CI is much less. There should be pretty big O&D demand, and not sure if CI gets DL feed out of JFK, but certainly BR is not getting any feed from UA, given they have 0 flights out of JFK. Perhaps what this signals to me is that BR is generally just the stronger airline between the two.

What will be more interesting is to see the change in LF along the West Coast (YVR, LAX, SFO) from the increaed SEA competition. I don't think much will change in terms of pax count from the other non-West Coast hubs, since they already have direct flights, I don't see them connecting in SEA or double connecting for onward traffic. IAH and ORD are probably very strong for that reason since there's far less TPAC competition. ONT probably doesn't get impacted much bc it's a more regional airport.

I'd also note that while Delta is retiming their flight, the current timing is terrible (as are most of their other TPAC flights out of SEA which are close to noon) for East Coast connections. You're basically only getting the bank of super early morning flights from East Coast along with really tight connections. For example, with the current timing from BOS, there's only one viable same-day connection through SEA at 7am with a sub-hour connection time, everything else is overnight layover. Once the retiming hits, it does enable an extra 11am departure from BOS though.

UA on the other hand is very comfortable w/ codesharing w/ BR and on their own metal, and their schedule is way more competitive as they offer many more viable East Coast connections, well into the evening.