I realize I'm pretty much talking to myself here at this point, but here it goes. A friend alerted me that points requirements for some of her reservations had dropped a bit, so I checked some of my upcoming reservations (these are all 4-nighters with Chase 4th night free).

- IC Phu Quoc: booked at 19k when the schedule opened, now 51k, revenue rate $320 (cheapest nonrefundable).
- Regent Phu Quoc: two 4-night reservations. The first one was booked at 59k, now 76k, revenue rate $640. Second reservation was booked at 45k, now 57k, revenue rate $380.
- IC Tokyo Bay: booked at 21k when schedule opened, now 84k, revenue rate $583. (Have several reservations here for Sakura 2025, but the picture is similar).
- CP Osaka: booked at 17k, now 29k, revenue rate $231.
- IC Osaka: booked at 61k, now 81k, revenue rate $831.

I guess this primarily supports the point I made last week about some of these hotels simply having been underpriced on points when booking at end-of-schedule. If you look at today's points requirements, these are generally ok, not great redemptions (ranging from .62cpp at IC PQC to .84cpp at Regent). Now, there are obvious caveats, namely that I'm comparing to nonrefundable rates, which I'd never book in reality. Pertinent to people without Chase cards, pretty much all the savings realized from buying points at .5cpp and booking these rates comes from the credit cards (4th night free and 10% discount benefits). Arguably, anyone who doesn't have these cards will be better off booking revenue rates at least at IC Phu Quoc and the second Regent reservation (when factoring points earned and cashback).

That said, in the case of IC Osaka, you're still looking at a value just over 1cpp as Chase cardholder (and therefore savings exceeding 50% if you buy points at .5cpp), and without cards, you'd pay 120k points -- .7cpp and still a pretty significant savings. At the nearby Six Senses Kyoto, I see some dates with nutso rates in the $3000 range (per night! for a 450sqm room!), vs. 220k-ish points, so if you are sitting on a few million points, there's a 1.3cpp deal for you right here.