Originally Posted by jpdx

Agree 100%. I think it makes sense to look at redemptions through this lense only. And IMO, some of the changes we are seeing are designed to address this very point.

There are two aspects to deterring redemptions at hotels with high occupancy:

- The first (and more obvious one) is to increase points requirements as hotels fill up. That's why you may see rates of 69k points on a particular date a few weeks out at an airport HIX with a cash rate of $199, but only 42k at a nearby downtown Indigo with a rate of $279. IHG would rather have you stay at the "better" Indigo (and reimburse $35) than the "mediocre" HIX (and reimburse close to $200). IHG has been pretty good at this over the last few years, and is getting better.

- The second is to assess occupancy far out. Since the introduction of dynamic pricing, IHG has been TERRIBLE at this. I'd estimate that 80% of my redemptions in 2023 and 2024 were at hotels that ended up being FULL, with IHG likely shelling out the daily rate in reimbursement. For instance, I redeemed ridiculously low amounts of points (less than 20k/night) at IC Cascais in July 2023 and again in July 2024, simply by booking ~11 months out, when the schedule opens up. At the date of booking, the hotel is already showing a €300-ish revenue rate, and that rate inches up until the day of my check-in, when the hotel is sold out. For my recent 12 night stay, I spent just over $1000 to buy points, and IHG reimbursed the hotel on the order of $5000. I have LOTS of examples like this -- ridiculously low points rates for Sakura or fall weekend stays at ICs in Osaka ($180 worth of points, IHG likely reimburses $700) and Tokyo ($130 worth of points, IHG likely reimburses $500), 20k point rooms at HI Munich during Oktoberfest, 18k points for NYE at IC Phu Quoc, etc etc ... these last two years have been AMAZING for point redemptions, but all these redemptions at sold-out hotels can't be good from IHG's perspective. And that's why they've been making changes: They finally got IC Cascais right for Summer 2025 (with 80k-ish rates) or Tokyo or Osaka or Paris at end-of-schedule: often, rooms show up at 120k points/night, simply because IHG has to assume that these hotels will sell out. There are still some deals to be had during low season, and IHG struggles with new hotels like IC Crete, but overall, I fully expect to be moving into a direction where buying/redeeming points saves 15-40% vs cash rates, rather than the 70-80% savings some of us have enjoyed over the past couple years.