The doubled travel (4X) and dining (6X) charges on rent day were probably massively unprofitable. Everything else at 2X was probably not very profitable either, considering that unlikely other card issuers they presumably split whatever is left of the merchant fees with WF in some form.

If they really lose 20-50% of their charge volume, would that be solely because of people who only used the card on rent day? If so, washing them out of the program seems to be the plan. But if they also lose everyday spend that people were making on top of the rent day charges, that wouldn’t seem good. But Bilt, of course, has the data that shows how people are using the card. If I had had the card, I probably would have only used it for dining (everyday, to gamble with potential rent day transfer bonuses) and rent day double earnings purchases.

In the end, profitability also very much depends on the details of the redemption deals and how cardholders use the points. Maybe those massive bonus deals on rent day transfers don’t cost them a lot if foreign carriers try to use them to break into the US market. And now few people will be able to reach high enough status to get those big bonuses in transfers, it seems.