Don't forget time to get off the plan. "Landing" at 10:15pm means at the gate probably not until 10:30pm at the earliest, then 5-10 minutes to deplane depending on where you're sitting. I think if the plane officially "arrives" at 10:30pm then there's a good chance AA will offload you and accommodate standby/non-rev pax, and it doesn't matter how quickly you get to the departure gate.