Originally Posted by
YYJ _SLF
If I were to guess, AC’s pricing and revenue prediction models relied too much on what happened post pandemic and ran into a brick wall when extrapolating the past put fares for the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 to a ridiculous level which caused customers to balk.
Depending on how responsive to recent data their dynamic pricing models are, I expect fares to drop significantly in the next few months.
I am just a sample size of one but I have no travel booked further than 6 months out which is rare for me. I am tracking 4 Google Flights and I am not willing to pay anywhere near the current prices.
I might be bucking the trend here a bit but I think there have been plenty of decently priced fares this year. For me, I've booked 2xDEL RT at 4k each, 2xEuro RT at 3.5k each and a smattering of domestic flights where P was cheaper than what I'd seen typically in the past.
I do agree that the cadence of the pricing model has changed. In the traditional model, long window advance bookings 6mo+ were heavily discounted either in an effort to secure baseline load or to capture what was assumed to be a more price sensitive market. It looks like the realization has come around that in a lot of cases, people booking that far out aren't that price sensitive because they are often date constrained (ie families booking holidays well in advance). I think the difference is that traditionally, the model would expect those buyers to book exclusively Y and they would get lost in a larger price sensitive Y group and now some of those less price sensitive leisure travellers are booking J. The jury is definitely out on whether that is a reaction to COVID (pent up demand + excess savings) or it is sustainable.
From the routes that I have been tracking, I have often seen the best fares come out between 4 and 12 weeks before departure. That's likely due to lower load factors at the beginning of that window and less provision for price insensitive business travellers in the near window. Whether that pattern lasts or if it breaks down into a more traditional distribution is unknown at this point. For myself, I much prefer this pricing cadence since I very rarely know where I'm going and what I need to book more than 3-4 months out.