Wow... I am impressed
7/19 (Friday) - online regular renewal (photo uploaded from my phone, first one rejected (background was not "offwhite") second photo (with flash) accepted (same background))
7/22 (Monday) - notified payment processed and processing begins
7/25 (Thursday) - notified passport was printing, Notified shipped, tracking number rcvd (priority mail which I guess is regular shippoing)
7/26 - USPS says it will arrive 7/27
7/27 - USPS says out for delivery

So 8 days for normal processing and regular shipping

I am out of town with a hold mail (did not expect 8 days!) so neighbor is watching in case it somehow slips through the hold mail.

note: online renewal opens at 1pm eastern time and has a daily limit. i think started mine around 4pm so not difficult to get your application in...