Originally Posted by
travelingdrsuz
Advantage holds are five days, so you can always place it on hold when you're in the window, and then monitor in while logged out to prevent this. It really does seem to depend on my "painful" routes.
That is not accurate. The five day hold only applies more than two weeks in advance.
I have generally observed the trend the OP is discussing over the past several months for many Caribbean routes. The lowest award point buckets seem to have been boosted by 20% or so. Even on the most horrendous routings.
The key is, 'many'. Perhaps even 'most', depending on market. But not 'all'. That makes me think It's primarily seasonal predictive variations in the award algorithm coupled with higher load factors.
AA thinks more people will travel closer in, in the summer, and will be willing to spend more $$ and points to do it, so the algorithm reflects that.