Not sure if anyone would be able to give you a definite answer regarding chances but what I can say is I have had a close to minimum bid accepted before. I'm sure there are more datapoints of similar experiences out there as I can't imagine myself being the only one with minimum bids getting accepted. For the record my bid of around $1200USD was accepted on CX882 HKG-LAX from PEY to J in March this year. J was nearly full at the time of acceptance, but so were the other classes. PEY was even already full if I recall correctly which may have helped make my bid successful. Obviously not cheap but I still remember my mileage ugprade waitlist never cleared before the ticketing deadline. Hence I decided to put in a bid and see what happens. I'm not sure if I would have ended up in J on that flight if I did not put in a bid and instead sweated it out until check-in at airport to ask for a mileage upgrade.

In terms of whether the bid is good value, maybe do a one-way dummy booking for both PEY and J to see what the fare difference is for reference?

It's been said in a separate thread about the Aria suites that the 77Ks (the variant with no F) will be the first to go under the chop for conversion. Since CDG is an F destination served by the 77A, it might be one of the last destinations to feature the Aria suite if CX intends to keep F on the route. The same could be said for the handful of flights that are F-protected.