Hello everyone, I am very experienced with AA, am considering Delta for a specific trip since AA pricing is through the roof. Need to understand their same day CONFIRMED change policy.

If I buy a pair of discounted first class tickets from MCO-LAS some Monday in September, for a late evening arrival (think 6p departure, 10p arrival), how likely do you think there would be a CONFIRMED same day change available to something arriving LAS by 3p? There are connection options (today) in ATL, SLC, DET and MSP. Are these often full the day before departure?

On a related note, how likely would a schedule change be between now and Sept that would let me pick a confirmed arrival before 3p?

Understand there are no guarantees, but would like to understand how likely these are - if it is "sure, no problem, buy the ticket" or "better buy a lottery ticket if you expect that to happen".

Thanks for the thoughts,