Originally Posted by
QueenOfCoach
A slight clarification. In years past I would use miles to get a confirmed upgrade. When the seats are released ~10 months before the flight date, there are a few Business Class seats in the upgrade bucket. If memory serves me, there are usually 2 such seats in the original allotment. My mission was to grab one of those two seats right after seats were released for that flight. My flight was always LAX-LHR-DUS-LHR-LAX at the same time of the year for an annual trade show.
My point here is that getting a confirmed upgrade with miles and co-pays is possible long in advance. You don't have to play the Upgrade Roulette if you are willing to plan way ahead.
I'm not quite sure that this is still possible in the modern era, at least on a regular basis. For example, seats are available on May 16, 2025, for flights across the Atlantic. (330 days out, which I guess is what you meant by "~10 months"?). But there is no available C class inventory for confirmable upgrades from, for example, JFK to anywhere in Europe on May 16. So unless something special happens at 10 months, as opposed to 330 days, I am afraid that things have dried up a bit since 2018, in terms of C inventory on the day seats become available. So it might sometimes be possible, but my impression is that a game of roulette or a lot of flexibility is very much necessary at this point.
Please correct me if I am missing some key element of your strategy, as I would love to get guaranteed upgrades as much as the next person and I am totally willing to plan ~10 months or 330 days ahead.