The NLL craze was quite good to me but perhaps the bubble has burst.

Estimated start (of craze for all) late 2020/early 2021, peak 2022, decrease 2023 and break late 2023/early 2024. My personal stats: 8 biz plats, 5 biz golds, 1 premature retention offer with subsequent biz plat to green conversion, 1 generous retention offer, many weak or bupkis retention offers, many retention calls, lots of MR education, 1.6M MR from SUBs, ~240k MR from SUB minimum spends, ~400k MR from other spending on NLL cards, many estimated tax payments, ~ 500k MR redeemed with 35% rebate, ~2M current MR balance, 1-2 current biz plat open undoubtedly with 1 AF to be paid for next few years regardless of retention offer (to keep 35%).

Previous to this craze I had always transferred MR to a partner program (mainly because I didn’t always have a MR card open) and I had never redeemed MR for airfare. Even with a few years of high AF (possibly without significant retention offers) I think I’ll still come out ahead based on expectations for MR redemptions and 35% rebates (but probably not enough to justify a Centurion AF).

It’s been fun (and lucrative) to follow this thread, I hope others have also enjoyed and been enriched . Thanks to all, particularly those who enhanced my knowledge .

Thank you AmEx, even though NLL might be a money loser for you please consider reincarnating NLL, maybe as a loss leader.

I hope I end up being a Chicken Little* in this situation .

(* "Henny Penny", more commonly known in the United States as "Chicken Little" and sometimes as "Chicken Licken", is a European folk tale with a moral in the form of a cumulative tale about a chicken who believes that the world is coming to an end. The phrase "The sky is falling!" features prominently in the story, and has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent.)