Originally Posted by
DLATL777
Its been reported in multiple sources by pax on the flight that the seatbelt sign was switched on seconds before this event occurred. This does not support those claiming CAT without warning. One could venture weather/cloud was at play here if the pilot had enough warning to switch on the seatbelt sign.
As a previous poster mentioned, sometimes the old MK1 eyeball can spot things--perhaps it did just quick enough to hit the seat belt switch.
A pilot buddy of mine and I were talking about this before I had to take a transcontinental flight and he quickly looked up the flight path and it had 'moderate turbulance'. So I knew what I was in for when the pilot made the announcement.
CAT must be an extremely hard thing to predict or even detect--very similar to downdrafts from thunderstorms that can upset a plane and in at least one case, did cause a crash. Most radars, even doppler, detect the movement of things in the air--if it is truly 'clear air', then there's nothing that can be detected with radar.
As time goes on and the climate changes around the world, it will be important to note if CAT issues increase or decrease or stay the same.