Originally Posted by
QRC3288
Although the intention is good I think you might get even get led further astray from anecdotes. The reality is the route really matters (related to how many Diamonds are on your flight), load factor matters (and this is highly variable, especially in this weird post-covid ramp up), class of service you're in matters (Y to PEY? Y to J on non-PEY planes? J to F? PEY to J?), plane type matters (regional config? long-haul with or without PEY? yes or no f class section?), etc.
But I'll throw my numbers in the hat because why not. I am a Diamond, and have flown on op-up-eligible flights (economy class) regionally on I think 4 sectors if I'm counting right since HK dropped quarantine in november 2022. I was upgraded twice I think (including a quadruple upgrade with Mrs. QRC, helper and little one, that one is easy to remember)....but both were to/from Taipei, on planes without PEY (one was regional plane, the other was a long-haul A330 without PEY). I've got a bunch of other flights but no upgrade was possible due to biz or f already.
From my opinion, I would say most important factor above all else which you have some "control" in guessing fairly accurately, is how Diamond-heavy is the route and is it a business flight or not. SIN, TPE, PEK, PVG used to be key destinations with a lot of Diamonds (although Taipei at certain times of day or weekend can be tourist heavy), and my instinct is that someone less than Gold did not have more than a tiny chance on such flights. Although as I write this I realize I don't even know the CX op-up priority anymore! I've been back and forth to Singapore on many sectors since quarantine lifted and I admit to glancing at that thing in galley or at crew iPads. I still see a lot of Diamonds on Singapore flights.
I have yet to figure out patterns to CX flights and what's going on these days. For example I just noticed flights to Singapore were cut to 4x daily some time recently. Went to book a flight there in a few days, and J class seems half full just a few days out. It all still seems very much in flux and not quite as predictable as pre-Covid. That's my two cents
Yes indeed there are way too many factors to control as mentioned, and actually quite difficult to actually quantify. I was mostly curious about how some people mention they always got upgraded, but never mention the other details (eg. status, route, flight load, number of accompanies etc.) That's probably something I haven't considered in detail. But indeed 2/4 flights sound as expected for a DM (at least in my mind). Thanks for the statistics though!