Originally Posted by
moondog
I edited post 23 because I forgot to include the word "monopoly" the first time around. Since United has stated that it won't entertain east coast - Asia non-Japan routes until the Russia overflight restrictions are lifted, why wouldn't CX go heavy those routes and lighter on routes that UA can and will operate? I don't it's likely that AA or DL will touch east coast-HK either, by the way.
AA or DL have shown no inclination for resuming any HKG flying. I think there is a possibility with AA receiving 30 new lower capacity/density 787-9s for the rest of the decade with no aircraft retirements they may look to resume DFW-HKG as it requires very little avoidance of Russian airspace and the new 787-9 is probably a better plane for the market. Ditto looking at DFW-TPE. Problem for AA is aircraft utilisation as UA has abandoned RON in Asia except for one SFO-TPE turn and one of the reasons AA started LAX-HKG was to improve utilisation for DFW-HKG, as the aircraft rotated around as DFW-HKG-LAX-HKG-DFW. DL dropped out of SEA-HKG and CX tried the market too but didn't work. I suspect Delta's new 275 seat A359s with 40 D1 seats could make SEA-HKG in the future work but it seems SEA is just not a fit for that traffic, especially now, but other Asia destinations do work. Just look at the insane amount of traffic between SEA-TPE later this year...
As for UA, CX is back to thrice daily nonstops on JFK-HKG but no resumption of EWR-HKG yet. Once Russian airspace reopens, and that could be a very long time without getting into OMNI territory, UA will be back on EWR-HKG. In the meantime, they are doubling down on West Coast-Asia flying with limiting non-TYO flying to SFO/LAX.