Originally Posted by
todderz
The "opportunity cost" you mention is a good point. Even assuming one has travel needs that would make use of the promo D$ within the subsequent 6 months, does D$5200 credit outweigh an extra outlay of $3300 if moving nights away from other chains meant losing elite status, and when that $3300 could (most likely) pay for a greater number of (points and status-earning) nights at other chains. It could, but this promo really isn't the 'no-brainer" it may first appear.
I'll easily hit 70 nights with IHG (Diamond with Lounge Pass) and 60 nights with Hyatt (Globalist) and have LT status with Marriott, so not an issue for me, but you're right, if staying with GHA for this promo meant foregoing qualification for another program's top tier, it likely wouldn't be worth it. For me, the opportunity cost would just be a bunch of 10k IHG points or $100 F&B certs earned at the 80/90/100 night milestones and 10k or 20k Hyatt points earned at the 70/80 night milestones.
Originally Posted by
todderz
I suppose if it becomes known once no more prize dollars are available, you could then begin spending the dollars that you have earned up to then.
This assumes that they'll make an announcement in a timely manner. Even if they do, I suspect a few people might be surprised by the news mid-stay or while waiting for the stay to post. But definitely, you're right -- it would be imperative to make flexible reservations and potentially keep backups with other chains, so when the D$760,000 runs out, one has the option of redeeming D$ or staying elsewhere.
I think there are (at least?) two scenarios in which this promo makes a lot of sense:
- Nomadic types who essentially live in hotels. I used to do that in 2018 and 2019. Back then, I'd often spend a single night at the various craptastic GHA brands to earn experiences. Rydges, Oaks, Avani, Parkroyal, PP all have some mediocre hotels with rates <<US$100. Probably hit 10 brands annually back then, just for the experiences. Anyone who's in that situation now can easily stretch out the $600 spend over 5-7 nights at these cheapo hotels. Of course you have to add taxes/fees, and you'll never hit $600 excatly. But you can do 10 brands for $7000 quite easily and get 50-80 nights for your money. Then, receive D$5200 from the promo and ~D$500 for spend, which turns into another 50+ nights at cheapo hotels over the next 6 months.
- People who want to sample higher level brands, don't mind short stays and are willing to spend $600 for a hotel night. With the 2-level upgrade (however weak the guarantee is), you can end up in some pretty nice rooms on your 10 stays. And then you use your D$5200 to explore more nice hotels, or indeed use it to pay for (a) stay(s) you had already planned. Sadly, this is not an option for me, as the bulk of my stays in the next few months are 4-night IHG redemptions booked at insanely low rates (with 4th night free), so I can't turn them into 3 nighters and spend one night at a GHA.
Finally, IF one decides to go for the D$5200, the question is, does it make sense to push further? GHA has what, 30-ish brands, and I guess there is a chance that someone hits up all of them. But it's equally possible that the winner of the D$200,000 tops out at 13 brands. So if you do 10 anyway, maybe push for 11, or 12, or ...? In reality, as you said above, spending D$200,000 in 6 months isn't an easy task unless one can move into the Lutetia for a few months, so perhaps better not to go for the top prize.