Originally Posted by
flyingcrooked
I think it's clear that when there is R space, it's up for grabs by anyone with an eligible fare and inside their booking window. But is there confirmation on what factors matter for what is often called the 'hidden bucket'? I had the strong sense cash vs redemption does - and that seems confirmed by the FAQ a couple of posts up. Is there confirmation that all/any of (i) fare class, (ii) fare cost, and (iii) AC status matter? Or is this closer to informed conjecture?
Everything is conjecture (some of which is informed or evidence based to an extent). Broadly the clearance of upgrades when no R space is available probably has an element of each of the factors you referenced but there are likely many more variables. It probably routes into the revenue management algorithm in some way and includes factors that are forecast, demand or experience based as well. In his comments this weekend, Scott O'Leary said that the upgrade program was designed with revenue management at the table and their big hurdle was that there wasn't a single instrument that applied across all scenarios. While R space is one dimension to this, AC has said clearly before that they'll offer additional eupgrade space on criteria that they won't make public.
From a decision matrix perspective, the algorithm makes available some 'on-demand' type space (ie R) that anyone can grab based on the published criteria as well as some 'offer' type space which triggers based on some opaque set of criteria. We can guess (with some authority) that the elements you mention factor into this but the only people who know definitively how it works are the AC revenue management folks and they're not going to make that kind of proprietary information available. If they did, it would likely provide a bunch of insight into the overall pricing model and I can't imagine any situation in which they'd tolerate that information being anything but restricted and confidential due to commercial reasons.