1) This is in August so things could change again.
2) Front of plane and no checked bags for me would mean I track the record of AF flight. Many int'l flights (except TK!) arrive early because schedules are padded a bit (not as familiar with AF or arriving from overseas to IAD, though).
3) If it seems semi-likely the AF flight will arrive on time, (and esp if IAD uses the GE app, which for me was even faster than regular GE at ORD), I would choose the 5:30. If you miss it, while it's not an auto rebook since not the same ticket, honestly, I would spend the night at IAD and take whatever AA rebooked me on direct (Flat Tire Rule, so they will still rebook you). Don't run to CLT and get stuck there, or spend money heading to DCA.

I am not risk averse when arriving back from a trip, so take my advice with that caveat.