Came across this thread while trying to assess my chances to successfully clear an upgrade - any thoughts on the odds of clearing a miles upgrade award from economy to business for someone with no ANA status? I spoke to an ANA agent who said that there are currently 4 people on the waitlist for the specific flight I'm looking at (LAX-NRT a few months from now).

Not feeling great about my chances if I'm 5th in line - business cabin looks about half full currently (though not sure that matters since it sounds like ANA won't necessarily make every seat upgrade-eligible, even if some seats are open up to the day of departure) - but any perspective or experiences is appreciated!