+1 If you do have a specific redemption in mind, it becomes a math exercise. Is your redemption value per point greater than the cost per point? Some folks also factor in the opportunity cost of the lost points earning on an award stay into the cost per point.

The one sure fire constant is points universally devalue over time. Hence the general wisdom not to bank them for an extended period of time and use some kind of earn and burn strategy. Saving up points for an aspirational trip in the near future also fits into this paradigm. YMMV....

--Jon