Originally Posted by
Schind
There's a bit more current info you can extrapolate from the 2023 Capital Markets Day. That shows an expected six 777-9s in 2026 and 35 long haul aircraft in total between the end of 2023 and 2026. The amount of LH aircraft in 2026 is 34 higher than now so there's one planned retirement. It could be from any airline but G-VIIA will be 30 years old at the end of 2026 so that's the prime candidate in my opinion. Note, VIIA was only delivered to BA in July 1997 so isn't the oldest by that measure. Loads are due to go in 2027 so are they getting the 777-9s in as expansion or are they hedging their bets on further delays?
The 321XLR counts as “longhaul” in the latest slides, so that would make 15 77Es to be replaced, roughly. Hard to tell exactly as the date ranges on the data are all a bit selective and dont quite match.
BA will absolutely NOT be growing by a whopping 18 777-9s over 2 years PLUS an extra 6 787-10s in 2026. That is dramatic and extreme growth. 1-for-1 with the 77Es allows for modest expansion (more seats per jet). Perhaps it wont quite be 1-for-1 and some will be for additional growth.
Remember that since 2018/19s slides we’ve had Covid and Ukraine (Russian airspace closure). Business travel has not, and will not, return to previous levels and flying east is now far more costly. Simply put, the world has changed and BA’s pre-Covid plans are irrelevant today.
Pre-Covid though 5 of the 777-9s were for 77E replacement already. With the delays of the 777-9, the smaller demand and higher cost environment, and the addition of 6 extra 787-10s that were not in 2018’s plan you can see how the 777-9 is now the 4-class 77E replacement aircraft for about 15-18 of them.
Where on earth would BA send an additional 24 aircraft anyway?! (18 777-9s and 6 787-10s)