I'm visiting venice in a few weeks and had previously checked to see if my 50k free night cert could be used in venice anywhere, and saw the both the st regis and the Gritti were way out of range.

a few days ago I happened to check again and saw that there was a pointsaver rate for the St. Regis for 58k points. I was dumb and didn't jump on it right away and the next day it increased to and has stayed at 65.6k points.

I searched the calendar for the next year and saw that 65.6k points is the lowest for the next 12 months. I'm not very familiar with Marriott, but I assume this is related to their dynamic pricing model. And, I'm assuming that since I the lowest rate for the next year is 65.6k points, that there is a "floor" price for award redemptions that this model changes. So, if the model decides that the lowest price needs to be increased from 65.6k to 75k, ALL award redemptions in inventory at the 65.6k level will move to 75k.

Does that sound right to anyone? And if so, I'm curious if anyone has seen points go up and down in the 1-2 weeks leading up to a stay? Really hoping it drops down again and I can use a free night cert + 8k points to stay there. Thanks in advance!