Is there any chance? Sure. Flights can be delayed or even cancelled for a number of reasons and it happens every day. But most people also routinely make 1 hr 45 min connections. It doesn’t strike me as very risky.

It sucks that the alternative (safer) flight results in a 9 hr connection.

How mission critical is it to arrive at your destination on time? If it is super important (important business meeting, start of a cruise…), I would want a greater buffer than if it was visiting family for a couple of weeks and one day more or less in Baku wouldn’t really matter. That would then lead me to wonder if flying a day earlier would be better, and then perhaps with the shorter connection as that still leaves the next day to recover from misconnect.