Originally Posted by
super_
Thank you Herb687 and others for trying to answer my question.
Yes, I'm trying to understand if there is a pattern for when the lowest point cost of awards are released (for the pedants: this is regardless of whether they're branded "saver", "lowest dynamic pricing", "cheap happy award point tix low fun fun time"). If the answer is there is no pattern, then great that's all I need to know. If the answer is there is a pattern, then I'd appreciate more information on when that occurs. If I'm asking the incorrect question, then please elucidate me.
I am asking this because, for example, I consistently see the lowest point cost from LAX-JFK in business is ~30k. When I look just after midnight CST and check on the last day of the schedule that just opened, these awards are not available at this cost, even though AA just opened up the awards. I am interested in understanding if there is a trend of when AA typically will release a ~30k point business class award (on any route, this is just an example route).
Route specific, and time specific.
The premium transcon route can get even lower than 30K, and you don't even need to book far in advance. I have booked first class on the same route for just 10K more around 2 months out. I have also booked business class at 27.5K miles.
For domestic itineraries, outside of major holidays and special events, there is rarely a rush or a need to get tix right away. In fact, at far out, especially for cash rates, there may only be expensive fares. Revenue management usually don't tinker (adjust for supply/demands) until 3-6 months out). Also, people buying far out usually have inflexible schedule, airlines use this to their advantage.
If there is a good deal you like, there is little harm in booking it. If rates go down, you can always cancel and rebook.