SFO-HKG flight, waitlisted for Polaris Business with R fare and PP. Flight status showed 45/60 booked three days out. It then changed to 58/60 booked overnight and I was #7 on the waitlist. Using "change flight" showed an additional $1800ish to upfare to P, but using "change seat" wanted an additional $2300ish to assign a business class seat. One day before departure, someone showed up as cleared on the flight status but it was not the original #1 on the waitlist. Upon OLCI, there was a cash upgrade offer at $1299 so I took it. My name moved to the cleared section too. In the end 4 people including me showed up on the upgraded list, but the #1 on the waitlist stayed there until flight departure. I guess all 4 on the cleared list are TOD takers. Revenue management played well and they won.