Weather doesn't seem particularly bad at CDG (and why would they be trying to nudge people onto other flights -- to try to reduce the EC261 bill?). Not aware of any current or planned strikes or military conflict at CDG (am I not paying enough attention to current events?).

What kind of swinger do you have in mind here? I'm clearly not faithful to AF; I actually mostly consort with oneworld airlines (and I'm not faithful to any one of them either). But AF don't know this (well, maybe they do: they tried to get me to sign them up to the AF FF programme, and I had to admit that I seldom fly AF because I'm based in the UK and generally stick to BA/oneworld).