Data point:
I submitted my online renewal on 4 Jan 2024 and was notified this morning (6 Jan 2024) that I was approved.

For context, I've had Global Entry since 2013, and this is my second renewal. I was a little nervous about being approved, as the process seemed a lot more detailed than the last time I renewed (it seemed like there were a lot more questions to answer this time, but maybe I'm forgetting). Additionally, I made a lot of updates in my renewal (changed my mailing address since I had moved, I noted that I do not need to add a car, I added my drivers license, etc.)

Good luck to everyone!