Data Points: (all apps/renewals online in the same portal from the same IP address)
Initial GE Application: 2010 at IAD - took less than 30 days each including interview for myself, hubby, minor daughter
First renewals: 2015 - hubby - no interview required, daughter no interview required, both completed within 30 days, new cards in mail within a couple of weeks. Mine was approved within 30 days, then had to do interview at Otay Mesa CA center - took a few weeks to get appointment, my new card was handed to me at the center.
Second renewals: 2020 - hubby - no interview, approved/got new card within 30 days. Daughter - no interview, approved/got new card within 6 months. Me - took 10 months, no interview, got card 30+ days after approval AFTER I CALLED.
Third renewals: 2024 - after 2020, made calendar notes to file renewals online 1 day after our birthdays in 2023. Husband- (April) got approval and new card in mail in 2 weeks, no interview. Daughter (August)- approved within 30 days, never got new card. Me - only applied in October, but still "Pending Review". I guess I'll check on it next Christmas...

Notes: Husband has a government clearance, maybe this helps. He has traveled for work to a lot more "questionable" countries than I have including Taiwan, Malaysia, etc. We mostly travel together, never to "questionable" countries anyway. Our daughter has only come with us occasionally. As of 2020 renewal she was no longer a minor, AND she was not born in the US (we were).

As for algorithms, in 2020 I could see it as random, now not so much, as there is a clear pattern here. If my membership doesn't actually expire til 2026, that's fine, BUT I will be doing some international travel and hope that my expired card will still count (e.g., UK, Australia).

Also - I have to get my passport renewed by April, as a couple of places we will travel to in Fall in 2024 require 3-6 months beyond passport expiration to get a tourist visa (it expires Oct 2024), and I have heard it's now taking 8 weeks even for expedited renewals. QUESTION: Should I update passport info in the portal as soon as I get the new one? Or wait til after the old one expires to change it online?

This is the first time GE & Passport renewals coincide in the same year - wondering if I will be in limbo til 2026...

Lastly, a Q for the group: wondering if females get caught in the manual review algorithm more because we usually have a couple of name changes due to marriages & divorces?