Originally Posted by pennystinkard

I am pondering the wisdom of transferring points to Aeroplan prior to ascertaining award availability. I only ever intend to use Aeroplan for a specific route on a partner airline, and if there is no availability for that route (a highly competitive one), I would simply not use Aeroplan ever. I can certainly check at calendar open and then transfer instantaneously from Amex, but the route is competitive enough that I worry that even a few minutes delay in transferring would cost me the seats. So, how risky is it to pre-transfer points given that I have seen many refer to Aeroplan as a "sinking ship"?

For reference, the route I am looking at seems to regularly open up on weekdays but not weekends, if I look right as the calendar opens for booking.