This shows the value of up-to-date information. It’s a while since I did an early morning taxi from T3. At that time the taxis outnumbered the arriving passengers but that was before the tourist numbers picked up.

Just thinking about it, I would expect there to be enough taxis at HND in the very early morning, since those that drop off passengers for early flights have every incentive to pick up a fare for the trip back to Tokyo. But it’s worth having a backup plan in case there’s a huge line. My backup would be to go back into the terminal and take the monorail. Then get a cab at Hamamatsucho.