Originally Posted by
Wigg
As it stands I think you have a good chance. But remember that the list only includes passengers who have checked-in. If a higher status person with a similar or better fare checks in later they could bump you down the list.
Things can also work in your favour if someone is booked but doesn't make your flight increasing the number of seats available.
That being said, I just took a flight where me and my GF were in position 2 and 3 for both business and premium with 2 and 10 spots available and I got the business class seat and she got completely erased from the list leaving her in economy so anything can happen.