Originally Posted by
NYC Flyer
I don't see any exciting strategy here at all. The value of the merger is completely premised on cost rationalization.
My predictions:
- despite the dog and pony show, there will ulitmately be a PR problem with Hawaii residents due to job losses, likely cessation of west-coast widebody service, and ultimately, a combined brand
- AS will dump the A330s as leases expire and/or disposition opportunities arise
- Dreamliner fleet will be limited to fly profitable long-haul routes ex-Hawaii, with only incidental west coast flying, if at all. No AS wide-body will ever fly a city-pair that does not include a Hawaiian airport--specifically, SEA will never see Europe/Asia service on AS metal
- WN sees this as an opportunity to attempt to significantly expand their inter-island schedule
AS will attempt to boost yields on mainland-Hawaii by reducing capacity, but there is a limit as DL/UA/AA will have plenty of frames to boost service as fares become more attractive.
Initially, I suspect the club access will be maintained for elites residing in HI, with mainlanders expected to produce an AS lounge membership card. The benefit will be eroded over time.
My predictions are largely similar. This will be a negative for Hawaiian residents. Corporate jobs will quietly and slowly relocate to SEA. The combined company will pull out of HA destinations like OAK/ONT and leave that to WN. Other routes to the mainland will get consolidated like AUS, but overall there will be capacity cuts. These capacity cuts will surely lead to increased fares in the short term before other airlines enter and return capacity. Internationally I think we'll see cuts to CTS/RAR and definitely KOA-TYO. The intra-island b717 will quickly get replaced by E175s which will be both a cut in seat capacity as well as cargo. Where my prediction differs from yours is I do think dreamliners move to the west coast. I predict new routes like SEA-TYO/ICN. It will be interesting what concessions AS agrees to in order to smooth things over and get the deal to go through. But whatever they agree to, like not reducing hawaiian workforce or capacity X% for X timeframe will be abruptly discontinued when that timeframe expires.