Originally Posted by grubens

So in case anyone ever finds this thread and wants a data point to consider, four upgrade seats "magically" appeared on the leg to Australia (SFO-BNE, mid-December on a Tuesday, so farther from peak holiday travel) about 7 weeks out and we grabbed them. We are still waitlisted for 4 seats on the BOS-SFO outbound leg. As of approximately six weeks out from return leg (1/2, SYD-SFO) the seat map show 11 available Polaris seats. I did transfer the points to United and joined the waitlist today for the return trip and have fingers crossed it will clear.