It is entirely dependent on how you spend your AE points. Do you piece together complex international trips sourcing the rare fixed redemptions for a better return or just drop the points on whatever personal flights you are taking? Do you use all your points and Priority rewards in a given year?
When and where do you stay? My spending habits where I save the points unless they are above a certain floor value would put the two potentially equivalent in dollar value to me, but all things equal I would diversify my chances for points redemption and take the 150k Bonvoy.