As you both commented, yes, the arrival time WAS the bigger issue. I discovered my hand luggage is not weighed, so with some careful packing carried it on. (It probably weighed at least 20kg all told). I thought that mitigated my risk. I was wrong. It arrived at 9:34 (3 hours, 4 minutes late). I am still waiting to find out if I can claim compensation. It totally destroyed my onward travel.