I use 1.3 cents per mile as a minimum decent conversion rate. Most of the travel I do has rates more in the 1.4 to 1.5 cents per mile range. I have seen some international get close to 2 cents per mile, but it’s rare.

The miles blogs that exist out there make it seem that anyone not getting business class for <100k points is doing it wrong, but that’s just not the reality in 99.99% of situations.

Amazing deals do come up, but they are rare and may not be the location, dates, or cabin you are looking for. Award flights to Auckland a while back were very cheap, but only if you book main cabin.