I doubt the new fares will stick very long. Other airlines have followed and many industry analysts are saying that the new prices are not good for the industry as a whole. If the airlines can't turn a profit with the "old" prices, it's highly doubtful that lowering them will result in any appreciable new total revenue. As to your original question, lower prices in F will result in more people buying F seats in the short-term... hence, more difficult to upgrade. I seriously doubt that elite qualifications or award levels will be raised any time soon.
Originally Posted by RustyC
Bearing in mind the chance for unintended consequences and trying to look a step or two ahead, will Delta's 499/599 move, if it sticks, lead to bad news for FF programs as we know them?
The immediate predicted effects are forcing other airlines to match and, perhaps more significantly, implanting in consumers and business travel managers the notion that under no circumstances should they pay more than 499 coach or 599 FC each way in the 48 US or accept a Saturday stay requirement for that kind of money. And that's if everyone matches Delta without upping the ante.
Suddenly all the incentives and targeted awards for the formerly really hefty fares look questionable. Should F get all those bonuses if only $100 more than Y? Will anyone other than Ys have any chance at an upgrade? And with overall revenue expected to take a hit, at least at first, will we hear that that means more belt-tightening on the FF programs? Seems to me it could be used as a pretext for raising elite-qualification requirements and/or raising lowest award levels.
Seems like this will not only shake up the fares, but the way the programs give incentives and rewards for all fares. I think overall it's simpler and fairer, but have a hard time seeing it leading anywhere good for FF benefits. Thoughts?