Scott Kirby had an interesting post on his LinkedIn page. Here it is:


The third quarter was another confirmation that United Next is working exactly as we expected, both for United Airlines and for the industry at large. It’s pretty remarkable that this quarter, ~98% of the total expected industry revenue growth will come from [MENTION=1407]UNITED[/MENTION] and one other airline, and ~90% of the total expected industry pre-tax profit will come from just those two airlines.

For my entire 30-year career, the airline industry has gone through cycles, and we are in one now…but all of those cycles have ended with the lowest margin airlines forced to make adjustments – which will lead to better results for United. The adjustments are an inevitable economic reality, and I expect it to happen again by 2H24. What’s different this time, however, is that the lowest margin airlines are the so-called low-cost carriers, and that’s where I think the changes are going to occur. As a result, United is going to emerge in a structurally stronger and sustainable position. The changes ahead are significant and are going to lead to a much better outlook for United’s customers, employees and shareholders. 🙌


It’s an interesting comment about a possible downturn, though I think the the LLCs might have the sort of pricing power in a pullback that the legacies would find challenging.