Thanks for the replies, everyone. Here is a bit of back of the envelope math:
- Put $150k in a Bask Bank account
- Receive 375k AA miles per year
- Opportunity cost of that is $150k in Treasuries @ 5% return and 35% tax rate = $4875 (for a per-mile cost of 1.3c)
- Redeem 15k miles + $75 for an upgrade: 15k * 1.3c + $75 = $270
- This is just $25 more than the "buy up" offers currently going for that route for $243 ... and guaranteed every time.
- Or just redeem outright for ~35k miles where possible (if flexible), which is $455
Does the math check out?
Forgot to add, I am lifetime OneWorld Emerald on a non US carrier, so I get MCE seating with Basic Economy for as long as they honor their OneWorld alliance partnership... (fingers crossed)