Originally Posted by
IADCAflyer
This is a question that is very hard to gauge and is skewed by individual observations. Ive been very, very successful on my upgrades this year - although it has been a close call on a few flights. I do fly a mix of routes (business/leisure), and typically out of DCA or paid F. Thinking back this year, my widest miss was IIRC SJU-MIA where I was probably #6 on the list.
Many others I've either made it at some point in the upgrade window or was #1 on the list.
My LPs are in the low 200,000 range for the year.
My lowest has been same, an ORD-LGA flight on a 319 where I was #6 on the list, (but miraculously cleared when the plane went tech and was swapped to a 321), and I frequently find myself #1-3 if I don't clear. For ORD/DFW, I believe I'm at 100% UG rate, but I'm flying either the first flight ORD-DFW or last DFW-ORD, and not on Mondays (and usually not Fridays either).
I have noticed my upgrade rate decreasing slightly (I don't know how many rolling LPs (If there's a way to look it up I'd love to know), but I have just shy of 300k since March 1st), but that's when I'm flying on more business heavy days/routes, I have no problem clearing on most routes that I fly, as long as I basically avoid DFW-LAX/MIA, as well as LGA when on 319s (and 319s in general).
I'm not sure on the specific number of EXPs that are out there, and I don't even want to hazard a guess, but It's definitely skewed in terms of how often people fly. Obviously one can achieve EXP now without stepping foot on a plane, and there was a whole thread here on not meeting the 30 or so segment requirement for the choice rewards, and then there's the opposite end - I'm at ~225 flights so far this year (starting Jan 1), with about 150 on AA and another 50 on OW carriers, so I've been able to somewhat tune my flying to avoid flights where I probably won't get upgraded and pick flights that are less popular for elites.